IDENTIFICATION OF LONG-TERM PATTERNS IN RAINFALL EROSIVITY UNDER A HUMID CONTINENTAL CLIMATE WITH HOT SUMMERS

The long-term patterns of the erosional potential of precipitation (R-factor) in the monsoon climate of Primorsky Krai are investigated using modern time series analysis methods.

This study presents an analysis of the rainfall erosivity potential (R-factor) under a humid continental climate with hot summers (Dwa in the Köppen climate classification) using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Power Spectral Density (PSD) methods. The original data, covering the period from 1960 to 2022, were pre-processed by removing trends and seasonal components, which allowed for identifying the dominant role of seasonal and random fluctuations in shaping temporal variations of the R-factor. The DFA results demonstrated a high degree of linear conformity in logarithmic scale (R² = 0.983) with a scaling parameter α ≈ 0.534, indicating weak persistence and moderate correlations typical for processes dominated by short-term episodic precipitation events. The analysis of local DFA slopes revealed a stable region at a scale of approximately 15.8 months, reflecting the influence of annual seasonal cycles and potential interannual climate oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Meanwhile, PSD analysis confirmed the absence of pronounced long-term memory and fractal structure in the spectrum, consistent with DFA findings. These results emphasize the importance of a comprehensive approach to studying rainfall erosivity potential and highlight the promising application of fractal analysis methods for identifying climatic and hydrological patterns in regions with pronounced seasonality and high rainfall variability.

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