serpЭрозия почв и русловые процессыSoil erosion and river channel processes3034-4638Limited Liability Company “Expert laboratory ”Hydroinformational systems”10.71367/3034-4638-2025-2-3-19-32serp-42Research ArticleСтатьиВЫЯВЛЕНИЕ ДОЛГОСРОЧНЫХ ЗАКОНОМЕРНОСТЕЙ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ЭРОЗИОННОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛА ОСАДКОВ В УСЛОВИЯХ ВЛАЖНОГО КОНТИНЕНТАЛЬНОГО КЛИМАТА С ЖАРКИМ ЛЕТОМIDENTIFICATION OF LONG-TERM PATTERNS IN RAINFALL EROSIVITY UNDER A HUMID CONTINENTAL CLIMATE WITH HOT SUMMERSКрючковН. Р.KriuchkovN. R.

Никита Романович Крючков, кандидат биологических наук, преподаватель; научный сотрудник кафедры общей экологии и гидробиологии

Шэньчжэнь;

Москва

Nikita Romanovich Kriuchkov, PhD in Biology, Lecturer; Research Fellow at the Department

Shenzhen;

Moscow

nrkruychkov@gmail.comМакаровО. А.MakarovO. A.

Олег Анатольевич Макаров, доктор биологических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой эрозии и охраны почв

Москва

Oleg Anatolyevich Makarov, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Soil Erosion and Protection

Moscow

ДемидовВ. В.DemidovV. V.

Валерий Витальевич Демидов, доктор биологических наук, профессор кафедры эрозии и охраны почв

Москва

Valery Vitalievich Demidov, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Professor of the Department of Soil Erosion and Protection

Moscow

ШульгаП. С.ShulgaP. S.

Павел Станиславович Шульга, кандидат сельскохозяйственных наук, доцент кафедры эрозии и охраны почв

Москва

Pavel Stanislavovich Shulga, Candidate of AgriculturalSciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Soil Erosion and Protection

Moscow

Университет МГУ-ППИ в Шэньчжэне, биологический факультет; Московский государственный университет им. М.В. Ломоносова, биологический факультетРоссияShenzhen MSU-BIT University, Faculty of Biology; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of BiologyRussian FederationМосковский государственный университет им. М.В. Ломоносова, факультет почвоведенияРоссияLomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Soil ScienceRussian Federation202504112025031932Copyright © Крючков Н.Р., Макаров О.А., Демидов В.В., Шульга П.С., 20252025Крючков Н.Р., Макаров О.А., Демидов В.В., Шульга П.С.Kriuchkov N.R., Makarov O.A., Demidov V.V., Shulga P.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://journal.sediment.ru/jour/article/view/42

В данной работе исследуются долгосрочные изменения эрозионного потенциала осадков (R-фактора) в условиях муссонного климата Приморского края с использованием современных методов анализа временных рядов. R-фактор является ключевым параметром для оценки водной эрозии почв, однако его временная динамика в муссонных регионах изучена недостаточно. На основе 62-летних данных об осадках (1960–2022 гг.) метеостанции Свиягино (44.7997, 133.0831) был рассчитан временной ряд R-фактора с суточным разрешением. Для выявления скрытых закономерностей применялись методы детрендированного флуктуационного анализа (DFA) и анализа спектральной плотности мощности (PSD) после удаления трендов и сезонных компонент.

Результаты показали слабую персистентность временного ряда (показатель DFA α = 0.534), что означает умеренную предсказуемость эрозионных рисков на коротких временных интервалах. Высокое качество степенного соответствия (R2 = 0.983) подтверждает устойчивость выявленных закономерностей. Обнаружен характерный временной цикл продолжительностью 15.8 месяца, который может быть связан с крупномасштабными климатическими осцилляциями типа ENSO.

Полученные результаты позволяют улучшить точность прогнозирования эрозионных процессов в муссонных регионах и оптимизировать планирование противоэрозионных мероприятий. Выявленные фрактальные свойства R-фактора могут быть использованы для совершенствования моделей эрозии почв семейства USLE/RUSLE в условиях изменяющегося климата.

The long-term patterns of the erosional potential of precipitation (R-factor) in the monsoon climate of Primorsky Krai are investigated using modern time series analysis methods.

This study presents an analysis of the rainfall erosivity potential (R-factor) under a humid continental climate with hot summers (Dwa in the Köppen climate classification) using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Power Spectral Density (PSD) methods. The original data, covering the period from 1960 to 2022, were pre-processed by removing trends and seasonal components, which allowed for identifying the dominant role of seasonal and random fluctuations in shaping temporal variations of the R-factor. The DFA results demonstrated a high degree of linear conformity in logarithmic scale (R2 = 0.983) with a scaling parameter α ≈ 0.534, indicating weak persistence and moderate correlations typical for processes dominated by short-term episodic precipitation events. The analysis of local DFA slopes revealed a stable region at a scale of approximately 15.8 months, reflecting the influence of annual seasonal cycles and potential interannual climate oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Meanwhile, PSD analysis confirmed the absence of pronounced long-term memory and fractal structure in the spectrum, consistent with DFA findings. These results emphasize the importance of a comprehensive approach to studying rainfall erosivity potential and highlight the promising application of fractal analysis methods for identifying climatic and hydrological patterns in regions with pronounced seasonality and high rainfall variability.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.