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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">serp</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Эрозия почв и русловые процессы</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Soil erosion and river channel processes</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">3034-4638</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Limited Liability Company “Expert laboratory ”Hydroinformational systems”</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">serp-22</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Статьи</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Выявление долгосрочных закономерностей эрозионного потенциала осадков (R-фактора) в условиях влажного континентального климата с жарким летом (Dwa)</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title></trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5323-305X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Макаров</surname><given-names>Олег Анатольевич</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">oa_makarov@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-1"><institution>Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>06</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>3</issue><elocation-id>22</elocation-id><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Макаров О.А., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Макаров О.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Макаров О.А.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journal.sediment.ru/jour/article/view/22">https://journal.sediment.ru/jour/article/view/22</self-uri><abstract><p>В данной работе представлен анализ эрозионного потенциала осадков (R-фактора) в условиях влажного континентального климата с жарким летом (Dwa по классификации Кёппена) с использованием методов детрендированного флуктуационного анализа (DFA) и спектральной плотности мощности (PSD). Исходные данные за 1960–2022 годы были предварительно обработаны с удалением тренда и сезонной компоненты, что позволило выявить основную роль сезонных и случайных флуктуаций в формировании временных вариаций R-фактора. Результаты DFA продемонстрировали высокую степень линейного соответствия в логарифмическом масштабе (R² = 0.983) с параметром масштабирования α ≈ 0.534, указывающим на слабую персистентность и умеренные корреляции, характерные для процессов с преобладанием кратковременных эпизодических осадков. Анализ локальных наклонов DFA выявил стабильную область на масштабе около 15.8 месяцев, отражающую влияние годичных сезонных циклов и вероятных межгодовых климатических осцилляций, таких как Тихоокенаское десятилетнее колебание (PDO) или Атлантическая мультидекадная осциляция (AMO). При этом PSD-анализ подтвердил отсутствие выраженной долгосрочной памяти и фрактальной структуры в спектре, что согласуется с выводами DFA. Полученные результаты подчёркивают важность комплексного подхода к изучению эрозионного потенциала осадков и демонстрируют перспективность применения методов фрактального анализа для идентификации климатических и гидрологических закономерностей в регионах с ярко выраженной сезонностью и высокой вариативностью осадков.</p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>долгосрочные климатические циклы</kwd><kwd>фракционная размерность</kwd><kwd>сезонные колебания осадков</kwd><kwd>спектральная плотность мощности</kwd><kwd>мультидекадные осцилляции</kwd><kwd>муссонный режим.</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование выполнено при поддержке грантов Фонда строительства высокоуровневых университетов Шэньчжэня и Департамента образования провинции Гуандун (№023KQNCX095).</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">ВНИИГМИ-МЦД. 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